Research
Danilo.Leiva-Leon@bos.frb.org
Personal Website
Biography
Danilo Leiva-Leon is a principal economist and policy advisor in the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston Research Department. He previously held positions at the European Central Bank, the Bank of Spain, the Bank of Canada, and the Central Bank of Chile. His research focuses on empirical macroeconomics, forecasting, and time series econometrics. Leiva-Leon earned his PhD in economics from the University of Alicante.
Work Experience
Federal Reserve Bank of Boston
Principal Economist and Policy Advisor, 2025–
European Central Bank
Senior Research Economist, 2022–2024
Bank of Spain
Research Economist, 2016–2022
Bank of Canada
Senior Economist, 2013–2015
Central Bank of Chile
Senior Economist, 2015–2016
Research Intern, 2012–2013
Education
PhD, Economics, University of Alicante, 2013
MSc, Economics, University of Alicante, 2010
Public Service
Conference Discussions
“Macroeconomic and Financial Risks: A Tale of Mean and Volatility,” by D. Caldara, C. Scotti, and M. Zhong. 12th European Central Bank Conference on Forecasting Techniques
“Household Debt Overhang and Transmission of Monetary Policy,” by S. Alpanda and S. Zubairy. 19th Annual Inflation Targeting Seminar of the Central Bank of Brazil
“Commodity Connectedness,” by F. Diebold, L. Liu, and K. Yilmaz. 20th Annual Conference of the Central Bank of Chile
Referee
American Economic Review: Insights; Economics Letters; Energy Economics; International Journal of Forecasting; Journal of Applied Econometrics; Journal of Banking and Finance; Journal of Business & Economic Statistics; Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control; Journal of International Economics; Journal of International Money and Finance; Journal of Monetary Economics; Journal of Money, Credit and Banking; Journal of the European Economic Association; Quantitative Economics; The Review of Economics and Statistics
Primary fields of research
Macroeconomics, time series econometrics
Publications
Refereed Journal Articles
“Underlying Inflation and Asymmetric Risks” with H. Le Bihan and M. Pacce. Forthcoming. The Review of Economics and Statistics.
“Real-Time Weakness of the Global Economy” with G. Perez-Quiros and E. Rots. 2024. Journal of Applied Econometrics 39(5): 813–832.
“The Credit-card-services Augmented Divisia Monetary Aggregates” with W. A. Barnett, M. Chauvet, and L. Su. 2024. Journal of Money, Credit and Banking 56(5): 1163–1202.
“Inspecting Cross-Border Macro-Financial Mechanisms” with E. Gerba and M. Rubio. 2024. Journal of International Money and Finance 145: 103094.
“Tracking Weekly State-level Economic Conditions” with C. Baumeister and E. Sims. 2024. The Review of Economics and Statistics 106(2): 483–504.
“Housing Prices in Spain: Convergence or Decoupling?” with C. Ghirelli and A. Urtasun. 2023. SERIEs: Journal of the Spanish Economic Association 14: 165–187.
“Latin American Falls and Rebounds since the COVID-19” with L. Campos and S. Zapata. 2023. Latin American Economic Review 32(6).
“Endogenous Time-variation in Vector Autoregressions” with L. Uzeda. 2023. The Review of Economics and Statistics 105(1): 125–142.
“Exchange Rate Shocks and Inflation Comovement in the Euro Area” with E. Ortega and J. Martinez-Martin. 2022. International Journal of Central Banking 18(1): 239–275.
“Fluctuations in Global Output Volatility” with L. Ductor. 2022. Journal of International Money and Finance 120: 102533.
“Markov-switching Three-pass Regression Filter” with P. Guerin and M. Marcellino. 2020 Journal of Business & Economic Statistics 38(2): 285–302.
“Mapping China’s Time-varying House Price Landscape” with M. Funke and A. Tsang. 2019. Regional Science and Urban Economics 78: 103464.
“The Propagation of Industrial Business Cycles” with M. Camacho. 2019. Macroeconomic Dynamics 23(1): 144–177.
“Increasing linkages among European Regions. The Role of Sectoral Composition” with M. Gadea-Rivas and A. Gomez-Loscos. 2019. Economic Modelling 80: 222–243.
“Measuring Business Cycles Intra-synchronization in US: A Regime-switching Interdependence Framework.” 2017. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics 79(4): 513–545.
“Model Averaging in Markov-switching Models: Predicting National Recessions with Regional Data” with P. Guerin. 2017. Economics Letters 157: 45–49.
“Dynamics of Global Business Cycle Interdependence” with L. Ductor. 2016. Journal of International Economics 102: 110–127.
“Real–Time Nowcasting Nominal GDP with Structural Breaks" with W. A. Barnett and M. Chauvet. 2016. Journal of Econometrics 191(2): 312–324.
“Real vs. Nominal Cycles: A Multistate Markov-switching Bi-factor Approach.” 2014. Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics and Econometrics 18(5): 557–580.
Books and Book Chapters
“Heterogeneous Switching in FAVAR Models,” with P. Guerin. 2022. In Essays in Honor of Fabio Canova, Advances in Econometrics series Vol. 44(B), edited by Juan J. Dolado, Luca Gambetti, and Christian Matthes, 65–98. Leeds, England, United Kingdom: Emerald Publishing.
“US Monetary Spillovers to Latin America: The Role of Long-term Interest Rates,” with E. Albagli and D. Saravia. 2015. In Monetary Policy through Asset Markets: Lessons from Unconventional Measures and Implications for an Integrated World, Central Bank of Chile Series on Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies, Vol. 34, edited by Elías Albagli, Diego Saravia, and Michael Woodford, 285–307. Santiago, Chile: Central Bank of Chile.
“Country Shocks, Monetary Policy Expectations and ECB Decisions. A Dynamic Nonlinear Approach,” with M. Camacho and G. Perez-Quiros. 2015. In Dynamic Factors Models, Advances in Econometrics series Vol 35, edited by Eric Hillebrand and Siem Jan Koopman, 283–316. Leeds, England, United Kingdom: Emerald Publishing.
Boston Fed Publications
“Parsing Out the Sources of Inflation,” with Viacheslav Sheremirov, Jenny Tang, and Egon Zakrajšek. 2025. Federal Reserve Bank of Boston Current Policy Perspectives 25-5.