Using the most recent data available, the Central Mass regional labor market profile provides a detailed picture of the region’s current and future labor supply. For context, it also provides detailed information on labor demand in the region over the past decade. This profile is designed to help guide workforce development professionals, policy makers, and civic, education, and business leaders as they make decisions about education and training opportunities.

Executive Summary

Using the most recent data available, the Central Mass regional labor market profile provides a detailed picture of the region’s current and future labor supply. For context, it also provides detailed information on labor demand in the region over the past decade. This profile is designed to help guide workforce development professionals, policy makers, and civic, education, and business leaders as they make decisions about education and training opportunities.

The charts and analysis are divided into three sections:

1. Labor Supply: Demographic Trends of Residents Who Live in Central Mass
2. Labor Demand: Employment Trends of Jobs and Workers in Central Mass
3. The Pipeline: Educational Supply of Post- Secondary Degrees Granted by Institutions Located in Central Mass

The past decade has been challenging for the Central Mass labor market. After two recessions and a decade of declining employment, the region is now gaining jobs and recovering at a modest pace. Compared with other regions of the state, however, the recent recovery from the Great Recession has been somewhat slower in Central Mass. The region falls in the middle of the pack compared with other regional labor markets and trails statewide growth. While the recovery of the labor market is in its earliest stages, the region has had a varied employment situation, with strong growth in industries such as Transportation & Warehousing and Other Services but declines in others such as Educational Services and Wholesale Trade. In contrast, Massachusetts has had a stronger recovery in its earliest stages, with modest gains in most industries.

Although Central Mass has lost jobs over the course of the past decade, the region has gained population. In fact, Central Mass had the fastest growing residential population of all regional labor markets in Massachusetts, increasing at an annual rate of 0.7 percent between 2000 and 2008-2010. Central Mass also exceeded all other regional labor markets in the growth of its working-age population and its civilian labor force over this time period. One of the major contributing factors to the region’s population growth was the increasing number of immigrants settling in Central Mass. With a slowly growing native-born population, a majority of the growth in the population of Central Mass came from immigrants. Moreover, the growth of immigrants in the region’s residential and working-age populations and civilian labor force consistently exceeded the rates in Massachusetts and the United States over the course of the decade.

The residents and workforce of Central Mass (which includes people who commute from other regions and other states) have education levels that are similar to those of their counterparts in the United States but are also lower than the state average. Over the past decade, the region saw progressively higher levels of educational attainment among its residents and workforce, but a High School Degree continued to be the most common level of attainment. In 2008-2010, the share of the civilian labor force in the region with a Bachelor’s Degree or higher trailed the share of Massachusetts residents with comparable educational attainment (34.5 percent versus 41.2 percent). Nonetheless, the share of the region’s civilian labor force with at least some post-secondary education (64.4 percent) was closer to the share in Massachusetts (67.8 percent) because of the strong concentration of individuals in Central Mass with Certificates or Associate’s Degrees.

Looking forward, the region faces the demographic challenges of an aging population and potential shortfalls in workers with the educational levels required by employers. In 2008- 2010, 45.2 percent of the region’s civilian labor force was 45 years or older, while only 31.6 percent was 34 or younger. This suggests that the region’s businesses may face a potential overall shortage of younger workers to replace baby boomers as they retire in the coming decades. And while the region’s residents have obtained higher levels of education in the past decade, slow growth among those with Some College or an Associate’s Degree may result in a shortage of younger residents and workers with the skills to replace baby boomers as they retire. Further, Central Mass is not a major destination for workers from other labor markets. Most of the region’s employees are also residents of Central Mass (81.3 percent), and the region may face difficulty in filling any labor shortages by attracting commuters, particularly in positions with low education requirements and low pay that are traditionally filled by less mobile populations. However, people who are younger than 35 years old represent nearly 45 percent of the region’s unemployed, despite accounting for only 31.6 percent of the region’s civilian labor force. Thus, younger workers, who are disproportionately unemployed, may provide a future supply of labor if they have the education and skills to meet the demands of employers.

To foster strong economic growth in the future, Central Mass should strive to align the education of its labor force to meet the demands of the region’s employers. The higher education institutions in the region can play a key role in influencing the future supply of workers with post-secondary degrees. This supply will Please visit www.bostonfed.org/neppc for appendices describing geography and methodology, and for additional data. be critical to help meet the demographic challenges posed by the aging workforce and the increasing demand for educated workers. National and state enrollment patterns indicate that more individuals sought post-secondary education over the past decade. In Central Mass, growth in full-time enrollment at lessthan- two-, two-, and four-year institutions and in part-time enrollment at less-than-two-year and two-year institutions exceeded state rates during the same period. And more students in the region have completed post-secondary degrees (Certificates, Associate’s Degrees, and Bachelor’s Degrees), exceeding the growth in such degrees in Massachusetts. An increase in the number of degrees completed has translated to strong growth in most major fields of study for each degree type. In particular, the number of people earning Certificates and Associate’s Degrees has increased in the fields of Health Sciences, Services, and Business, potentially reflecting the region’s increasing demand for “middle-skill” workers in such fields.

Geography of the Regional Labor Markets

The Central Mass labor market borders three other regional labor markets: Pioneer Valley, Northeast, and Metro South/West. It is composed of 61 Massachusetts cities and towns covering all of Worcester County and parts of Middlesex County. Along with Worcester, the second most populous city in Massachusetts, the region contains a number of other large cities and towns, including: Leominster, Fitchburg, Shrewsbury, and Milford. Because of data limitations, in certain aspects of this analysis, such as industry/ occupational distributions, Central Mass is combined with the Berkshire, Cape & Islands, Northeast, Pioneer Valley, and Southeast regional labor markets and is referred to as the region Outside Greater Boston. See the on-line Geographic Definition Appendix for further details.

Employment Trends and Recessions

Massachusetts reached peak employment in 2001 and remained 5.0 percent below its peak (a loss of 169,800 jobs) at the end of 2011. Over the same period, total employment in the United States ended at only 0.4 percent below its 2001 peak (a loss of 513,700 jobs). One reason for the difference was that the short national recession at the beginning of the decade created a prolonged contraction and slow recovery in Massachusetts. By the start of the Great Recession, Massachusetts had still not recovered all of the jobs it had lost during the previous downturn. In contrast, the nation experienced a short labor market contraction in 2001, followed by a strong recovery that expanded employment up until the Great Recession. The Great Recession impacted the nation severely, while Massachusetts experienced a less pronounced downturn, with a slightly stronger recovery through 2010 followed by slower employment growth in 2011.

These differences between Massachusetts and the United States over the economic cycles are important to keep in mind when evaluating the performances of the eight regional labor markets. When possible, these labor market profiles will look at labor market information for the beginning of the millennium, the period preceding the Great Recession, and the decline in and recovery from the Great Recession.

Measuring Labor Supply
Demographic Trends of Residents Who Live in the Central Mass Region

• Population Growth Trends
• Demographic Characteristics of the Resident Population of Central Mass
• Growth in the Working-Age Population by Nativity Status
• Growth in the Civilian Labor Force by Nativity Status
• The Age Profile of the Working-Age Population
• The Age Profile of the Civilian Labor Force
• Educational Attainment of the Working-Age Population
• Educational Attainment of the Civilian Labor Force
• Educational Attainment by Age Group: Central Mass (2008-2010)
• Unemployment Rate Trends
• The Unemployed: Age Distribution (2000 and 2008-2010)
• The Unemployed: Educational Attainment (2000 and 2008-2010)
• Commuting Patterns of Residents and Workers: Central Mass (2008-2010)

Measuring Labor Demand
Employment Trends of Jobs and Workers in the Central Mass Region

• Employment Trends
• Demographic Characteristics of the Population Employed in Central Mass
• Distribution of Employment by Supersector (Q4 2010)
• Changes in Employment During the Economic Downturn by Major Industry: Central Mass
• Changes in Employment During the Economic Downturn by Major Industry: Massachusetts
• Industries Driving the Recovery: Central Mass
• Industries Driving the Recovery: Massachusetts
• Educational Attainment of Employees by Major Industry in Central Mass (2008-2010)
• Educational Attainment of Employees by Major Industry in Massachusetts (2008-2010)
• Employment by Major Occupation: Central Mass (2008-2010)
• Employment by Major Occupation: Massachusetts (2008-2010)
• Distribution of Occupations Across Supersectors Outside Greater Boston (2008-2010)
• Distribution of Occupations Within Supersectors Outside Greater Boston (2008-2010)
• Educational Attainment of Employees by Major Occupation in Central Mass (2000)
• Educational Attainment of Employees by Major Occupation in Central Mass (2008-2010)
• Educational Attainment of Employees by Major Occupation in Massachusetts (2008-2010)
• Job Vacancies in the Great Recession and Recovery
• Job Vacancies and Vacancy Rates by Major Occupation in Greater Boston (Q4 2010)
• Job Vacancies and Vacancy Rates by Major Occupation in Massachusetts (Q4 2010)
• Comparing Vacancy Rates and Educational Attainment: Peak Labor Market
• Comparing Vacancy Rates and Educational Attainment: Recovering Labor Market

Measuring the Pipeline
Educational Supply from Post-Secondary Degrees Granted by Institutions Located in the Central Mass Region

• Growth in Potential Supply of Educated Workers: Full-Time Enrollment Trends in the Past Decade
• Number of Full-Time Enrollees by Type of Degree Granting Institution in Central Mass (2000-2010)
• Growth in Potential Supply of Educated Workers: Part-Time Enrollment Trends in the Past Decade
• Number of Part-Time Enrollees by Type of Degree Granting Institution in Central Mass (20002010)
• Graduation Rates by Type of Degree (2009)
• Crossing the Finish Line: Trends in Degree Completions over the Past Decade (20002010)
• Educational Institutions Awarding the Most Degrees in Central Mass (2010)
• Number of Degree Completions by Degree Type: Central Mass (20002010)
• Certificates Awarded by Major Field of Study (2000-2010)
• Annual Completions by Top Five Certificate Majors in Central Mass (20002010)
• Associate’s Degrees Awarded by Major Field of Study (2000-2010)
• Annual Completions by Top Five Associate’s Degree Majors in Central Mass (20002010)
• Bachelor’s Degrees Awarded by Major Field of Study (2000-2010)
• Annual Completions by Top Five Bachelor’s Degree Majors in Central Mass (20002010)

• Data
• Geographic Data
• Geographic Definitions
• Methodology