Using the most recent data available, the Northeast Regional Labor Market Profile provides a detailed picture of the region’s current and future labor supply. For context, it also provides detailed information on labor demand in the region over the past decade. This profile is designed to help guide workforce development professionals, policy makers, and civic, education, and business leaders as they make decisions about education and training opportunities.

Executive Summary

Using the most recent data available, the Northeast Regional Labor Market Profile provides a detailed picture of the region’s current and future labor supply. For context, it also provides detailed information on labor demand in the region over the past decade. This profile is designed to help guide workforce development professionals, policy makers, and civic, education, and business leaders as they make decisions about education and training opportunities.

The charts and analysis are divided into three sections:

1. Labor Supply: Demographic Trends of Residents Who Live in the Northeast Region
2. Labor Demand: Employment Trends of Jobs and Workers in the Northeast Region
3. The Pipeline: Educational Supply of Post- Secondary Degrees Granted by Institutions Located in the Northeast Region

The Northeast region has fared better than most other Massachusetts labor markets, despite a challenging decade. After two recessions and a decade of declining employment, the region is now gaining jobs and recovering at a modest pace. The recent recovery from the Great Recession has been somewhat stronger in the region than in the state as a whole. The region has experienced a relatively broad-based recovery, with stronger growth in nearly every industry, helping to move the region ahead in the first year of the recovery.

Both the region’s residents and its workforce (which includes people who commute from other regions and other states) have fairly high levels of education. Massachusetts is one of the states with the most highly educated populations; the education level of the residents in the Northeast region is almost comparable with that of the population statewide. Over the past decade, the level of education for both residents and workers in the region has increased. However, the 37.9 percent of the civilian labor force in the region with a Bachelor’s Degree or higher in 2008-2010 trailed the 41.2 percent of Massachusetts residents with a Bachelor’s Degree or higher. Still, the share of the region’s civilian labor force with some post-secondary education (66.8 percent) was close to the share in Massachusetts overall (67.8 percent) because of the region’s strong concentrations of individuals with Certificates or Associate’s Degrees.

Looking forward, the region faces the demographic challenges of an aging population and potential shortfalls in workers with the educational levels demanded by employers. In 2008- 2010, nearly 45 percent of the region’s civilian labor force was 45 years of age or older, while only 30 percent were under 35. This suggests that the region’s businesses may face a shortage of younger workers to replace baby boomers as they near retirement age. And while the region’s residents have obtained progressively higher levels of education in the past decade, slower growth in those with Some College, an Associate’s Degree, and even a High School Degree is another sign of a potential shortage in the number of younger residents and workers who can replace baby boomers as they retire. This is particularly troublesome because the region is a net exporter of workers and may not be able to attract enough workers into the region to fill positions. However, there is one source of potential new workers. People under 35 represent nearly 45 percent of the region’s unemployed but account for only 30 percent of the region’s civilian labor force. Thus, younger workers, who are disproportionately unemployed, could be educated and trained to address any labor shortages.

To continue to foster strong economic growth, the Northeast could better align the education of its labor force to meet the demands of the region’s employers. The higher education institutions in the region can play a key role in influencing the supply of workers with a postsecondary degree. This supply will be critical to help meet the demographic challenges posed by an aging workforce and the increasing demand for educated workers. Indeed, national and state enrollment patterns indicate that more individuals have been seeking post-secondary education over the last decade. The Northeast region has seen growth rates in both full-time and part-time enrollments, and at both less-than-two-year and two-year institutions, that exceed state and national rates in the past decade. The region’s public four-year institutions have also seen strong growth in full-time enrollment.

In terms of students completing a post-secondary degree, the institutions in the region have, as a whole, surpassed Massachusetts and United States trends over the past decade. Only the growth in Associate’s Degrees trailed the national average between 2000 and 2010. Notably, a larger share of the region’s post-secondary degrees are completed at public institutions compared with state and national levels, particularly Associate’s Degrees (96.0 percent) and Bachelor’s Degrees (66.4 percent). An increase in the number of degrees completed has translated into strong growth in most of major fields of study for each degree type. The number of people earning Certificates and Associate’s Degrees has increased in a number of fields in recent years, possibly a response to the region’s increasing demand for middle-skill workers as the result of an early, broad-based industrial recovery.

Geography of the Regional Labor Markets

The Northeast labor market borders the Boston/Metro North, Central Mass, and Metro South/West regional labor markets. It is composed of 42 Massachusetts cities and towns in Essex and Middlesex counties. Some of the larger cities and towns include Lowell, Lynn, Lawrence, Haverhill, Peabody, Methuen, and Salem. Because of data limitations, in certain aspects of our analysis (such as industry/occupational distributions), the Northeast region is combined with the Berkshire, Cape & Islands, Central Mass, Pioneer Valley, and Southeast regions and is referred to as the region Outside Greater Boston. See the Geographic Definition Appendix for further details.

Employment Trends and Recessions

Massachusetts reached peak employment in 2001 and remained 5.0 percent below its peak (a loss of 169,800 jobs) at the end of 2011. Over the same period, total employment in the United States ended at only 0.4 percent below its 2001 peak (a loss of 513,700 jobs). One reason for the difference was that the short national recession at the beginning of the decade created a prolonged contraction and slow recovery in Massachusetts. By the start of the Great Recession, Massachusetts had still not recovered all of the jobs it had lost during the previous downturn. In contrast, the nation experienced a short labor market contraction in 2001, followed by a strong recovery that expanded employment up until the Great Recession. The Great Recession impacted the nation severely, while Massachusetts experienced a less pronounced downturn, with a slightly stronger recovery through 2010 followed by slower employment growth in 2011.

These differences between Massachusetts and the United States over the economic cycles are important to keep in mind when evaluating the performances of the eight regional labor markets. When possible, these labor market profiles will look at labor market information for the beginning of the millennium, the period preceding the Great Recession, and the decline in and recovery from the Great Recession.

Measuring Labor Supply
Demographic Trends of Residents Who Live in Northeast Region

• Population Growth Trends
• Demographic Characteristics of the Resident Population of the Northeast Region
• Growth in the Working-Age Population by Nativity Status
• Growth in the Civilian Labor Force by Nativity Status
• The Age Profile of the Working-Age Population
• The Age Profile of the Civilian Labor Force
• Educational Attainment of the Working-Age Population
• Educational Attainment of the Civilian Labor Force
• Educational Attainment by Age Group
• Unemployment Rate Trends
• The Unemployed: Age Distribution (2000 and 2008-2010)
• The Unemployed: Educational Attainment (2000 and 2008-2010)
• Commuting Patterns of Residents and Workers in the Northeast Region (2008-2010)

Measuring Labor Demand
Employment Trends of Jobs and Workers in Northeast Region

• Employment Trends
• Demographic Characteristics of the Population Employed in the Northeast Region
• Distribution of Employment by Supersector (Q4 2010)
• Changes in Employment During the Economic Downturn by Major Industry: the Northeast Region
• Changes in Employment During the Economic Downturn by Major Industry: Massachusetts
• Industries Driving the Recovery: the Northeast Region
• Industries Driving the Recovery: Massachusetts
• Educational Attainment of Employees by Major Industry: the Northeast Region (2008-2010)
• Educational Attainment of Employees by Major Industry: Massachusetts (2008-2010)
• Employment by Major Occupation: the Northeast Region (2008-2010)
• Employment by Major Occupation: Massachusetts (2008-2010)
• Distribution of Occupations Across Supersectors: Outside Greater Boston (2008-2010)
• Distribution of Occupations Within Supersectors: Outside Greater Boston (2008-2010)
• Educational Attainment of Employees by Major Occupation: the Northeast Region (2000)
• Educational Attainment of Employees by Major Occupation: the Northeast Region (2008-2010)
• Educational Attainment of Employees by Major Occupation: Massachusetts (2008-2010)
• Job Vacancies in the Great Recession and Recovery
• Job Vacancies and Vacancy Rates by Major Occupation: the Northeast Region (Q4 2010)
• Job Vacancies and Vacancy Rates by Major Occupation: Massachusetts (Q4 2010)
• Comparing Vacancy Rates and Educational Attainment: Peak Labor Market
• Comparing Vacancy Rates and Educational Attainment: Recovering Labor Market

Measuring the Pipeline
Educational Supply from Post-Secondary Degrees Granted by Institutions Located in Northeast Region

• Growth in Potential Supply of Educated Workers: Full-Time Enrollment Trends in the Past Decade
• Number of Full-Time Enrollees by Type of Degree Granting Institution in the Northeast Region (20002010)
• Growth in Potential Supply of Educated Workers: Part-Time Enrollment Trends in the Past Decade
• Number of Part-Time Enrollees by Type of Degree Granting Institution in the Northeast Region (20002010)
• Graduation Rates by Type of Degree (2009)
• Crossing the Finish Line: Trends in Degree Completions Over the Past Decade (20002010)
• Educational Institutions Awarding the Most Degrees in the Northeast Region (2010)
• Number of Degree Completions by Degree Type in the Northeast Region (20002010)
• Certificates Awarded by Major Field of Study (2000-2010)
• Annual Completions by Top Five Certificate Majors in the Northeast Region (20002010)
• Associate’s Degrees Awarded by Major Field of Study (2000-2010)
• Annual Completions by Top Five Associate’s Degree Majors in the Northeast Region (20002010)
• Bachelor Degrees Awarded by Major Field of Study (2000-2010)
• Annual Completions by Top Five Bachelor’s Degree Majors in the Northeast Region (2000-2010)

• Data
• Geographic Data
• Geographic Definitions
• Methodology